France, UK Sign Nuclear Defense Deal as Russia’s Economic Woes Renew Fears
Moscow considers France its “main adversary in Europe as its economy seen slipping into recession
France and the United Kingdom signed a “truly historic” agreement to coordinate their independent nuclear defense efforts in a bid to support Europe’s deterrence against Russia.
The Northwood Declaration marks “the first time” that both nations have coordinated their nuclear defenses, Starmer said on July 10. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Starmer signed the agreement during a three-day visit by the French president to the UK.
"From today, our adversaries will know that any extreme threat to this continent would prompt a response from our two nations,” Starmer said.
The European Union (EU) and the UK want to build the region’s military capabilities in response to geopolitical threats, particularly Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and to their concerns that the US is withdrawing from the region. The EU plans to deploy up to €800 billion for European defense spending through the ReArm Europe plan.
“French and British coordination is something that Moscow will now need to factor in,” Léonie Allard, an Atlantic Council Visiting Fellow, wrote on July 16. For the US, the declaration” is a clear signal that the UK and France are taking unprecedented steps on their own to strengthen the defense and deterrence capabilities of Europe,” Allard added.
US President Donald Trump has questioned the burden-sharing of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members and criticized the trans-Atlantic defense relationship as one-sided. He wants to see greater defense investment by Europe.
France, UK Create Nuclear Oversight Committee
Under the terms of the agreement, the countries will share intelligence to assess threats to the European continent. They will also develop contingency plans to counter any aggression and retain independent control of their nuclear programs.
The two countries will establish a Nuclear Steering Group, led by the French Presidency and the UK Cabinet Office. The group will provide political direction and coordinate across nuclear policy, capabilities, and operations.
The two countries also reaffirmed their support for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and their roles as nuclear powers contributing to NATO’s deterrence.
“The United Kingdom and France must once again show the world that our alliance can make all the difference,” Macron said during a July 8 address to the UK Parliament. He added that both countries must “fully shoulder the responsibility when it comes to European security.”
France, UK Monitor Russian Threats
Moscow officials proposed on July 17, “preemptive strikes” against the West in retaliation for NATO's backing of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in 2022.
French Defense Chief of Staff Thierry Burkhard stated on July 13 that Moscow considers France its “main adversary in Europe.” He described the battlefields of Ukraine as where the dominance of European principal powers will be decided.
The invasion raised concerns in Western capitals that Putin may lash out against NATO as the war drags on. The conflict has hurt the Russian economy more than publicly acknowledged, with a credible risk of a systemic banking crisis in the next 12 months, Bloomberg reported, citing Russian banking officials.
“We are on the verge of slipping into a recession,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said during a panel discussion at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last month. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged, “we’re going through a cold spell now.”
Despite a recovery from a 1.4% contraction in 2022, the Russian economy showed signs of overheating by 2023, as wage growth and inflation accelerated. The central bank raised interest rates as high as 21%, driving the slowdown to an estimated 1.4% year-on-year by Q1 2025. Still, in real terms, that meant a 0.6% contraction compared to the previous quarter.
Top executives at some of Russia’s largest banks have privately discussed seeking a state-funded bailout if the level of bad loans on their books continues to worsen over the next year, Bloomberg reported.
France Wants to Expand Its European Security Efforts
With concerns about Russian instability, France wants to expand its role in protecting Europe with its nuclear deterrence. After Russia, which has the world’s largest nuclear stockpile, France has Europe's largest arsenal with 290 nuclear weapons.
Paris spends €5.6 billion a year to maintain its nuclear program. The budget helps France maintain nuclear weapons “designed to be able to retaliate under any circumstances,” Emmanuelle Maitre, a senior research fellow at France’s Foundation for Strategic Research, told France 24 in March.
However, skeptics have already pointed to several fiscal, political, and structural constraints that may curtail these ambitions. Paris’s earlier March announcement of its possible nuclear deterrence expansion faced scrutiny.
Some questioned whether France’s nuclear stockpile would be enough to shield Europe without US backing. The addition of possible UK coordination has not assuaged all these concerns.
“The UK and French deterrents cannot replicate what the US is offering under its extended deterrence pledge,” Allard wrote.
Macron Faces Internal Headwinds
President Macron also faces several domestic financial and political headwinds. France’s national debt is forecast at 115% of GDP this year. This places France well outside the 60% cap permitted under EU regulations.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development expects France's GDP growth to deteriorate to 0.9% in 2025 from 1.1% in 2024. Paris already spends €62 billion annually to service its existing debt.
France’s government budget deficit narrowed to €94 billion in May 2025 from €113.5 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, according to government data on July 2. Total revenues rose by 8.9% year-on-year to €141.0 billion; expenditures declined by 3.3% to €214.5 billion.
France’s budget deficit: TradingEconomics
Some of Macron’s political allies on the far left have resisted his €6.5 billion defense spending increase over the next two years. He announced the additional spending during the French head of State’s traditional July 13 speech.
“To be feared we must be powerful,” Macron said during his speech.“Freedom has a price tag.”
French Prime Minister François Bayrou on July 13 declared the nation’s defense budget “sacrosanct” and exempt from any possible budget cuts. However, it is uncertain if Bayrou will be able to advance these new spending measures in the face of substantial political opposition.
 | A guest post by
|